EMPLOYMENT LAW FIASCO

One of the reasons cited for voting to leave the EU was because of excessive regulation. I think Priti Patel, in the campaign, suggested there should be a halving of regulations (HERE). The then employment minister a prominent Tory Brexiter, called them a burden and would like to cut them by 50%. 

Boris Johnson said it was “very disappointing” that Britain had not made “changes to employment law”, complaining that we “need to weigh in on all that stuff, all that social chapter stuff”.

Now Brexit Central has a piece (HERE) saying the government will protect all our employment rights and adding that:

Indeed, our employment rights often go beyond what is required by EU law. For example, British women can have up to 52 weeks of maternity leave and 39 weeks of pay, not just the 14 weeks proscribed [sic] by the EU. Our Parliament decided that parental leave can be shared by the father, progress that the EU is too scared to contemplate. British workers are entitled to at least 5.6 weeks of holiday, more than the four weeks set by Brussels.

So, there we have it. It isn't the EU that is responsible for burdening us with employment regulations, we did it all by ourselves. This just demonstrates the stupidity of the leave vote. The EU set out regulations, we adopt them but add conditions way beyond what is necessary, then blame the EU for over regulating us. Amazing

BIG BANKS EXPECT TO LOSE 35,000 JOBS IN THE CITY

Bloomberg (HERE) is reporting that CityUk, a lobbying group for many of London's financial institutions, are suggesting 35,000 jobs could be lost with most going either to Dublin or Frankfurt. With a hard brexit coming up this looks like a certainty.

BREXIT BILL BEGINS ITS PASSAGE

The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 is due to be debated today in the house of commons and is widely expected to be voted through (HERE). There are a lot of amendments including one from the second people's challenge that I have written to my MP about but none are expected to halt progress of the bill.

Mrs May expects the whole bill to have passed through both houses by March 7th.

I also see that there are steps being taken by MEP's in Brussels (HERE) to block any deal unless Britain signs up to environmental regulations after brexit. I don't believe this is unreasonable but since they would expect us to accept some sort of legal oversight, perhaps from the ECJ or another body, this might take a bit of swallowing.

Yesterday Mrs May was in Cardiff to meet the heads of the UK's devolved administrations but no agreement was reached and Nicola Sturgeon is once again threatening another referendum if Scotland is forced out of the single market.

TRADE DEAL WITH THE US WILL NOT BENEFIT THE UK

The newspapers are all full of Donald Trump who is acting like a bull in the international china shop in his first few days in office. But the bit that caught my eye (HERE) was a piece about Pete Navarro who has now been appointed to head the President’s official National Trade Council and Wilbur Ross who is set to become Commerce Secretary.

Last year they published a paper (HERE) which talked about the “Trump Trade Doctrine”.

Here’s how Navarro and Ross describe it on page 17:

Donald Trump has pledged to renegotiate every one of these bad trade deals according to the principles of the Trump Trade Doctrine, i.e., any deal must increase the GDP growth rate, decrease the trade deficit, and strengthen the US manufacturing base.

It will be interesting to see what kind of trade deal we get and how it will help us with our present trade surplus with the US!

On the same topic, the deputy Italian Foreign minister fears (HERE) we and the EU are headed for an economic trade war with countries taking a hard line in the hope of advancing their own economies at the expense of ours. This is not a surprise, I have said several times our compatriots are bound to become competitors. It will soon be dog eat dog.

Update: The Guardian in an editorial (HERE) sums it up neatly:

A collapse of relations with Europe alongside an “America first” trade deal with the US is a nightmare scenario. But Mrs May’s policies have made it a real possibility. MPs who are uncertain which way to vote on article 50 in parliament on Wednesday should get real and vote to stop this madness.

TRADE DEAL IN TWO YEARS IS "IMPOSSIBLE"

Guy Verhofstadt, the EU Parliament's chief negotiator has said that Mrs May's suggestion that there will be a trade deal by 2019 is "impossible" (HERE). I believe this will be the official position as soon as Article 50 has been invoked.

Of course, this has always been the John Redwood position. We trade now tariff free and after we leave, we just carry on as before. This is a pipe dream.

Mr Verhofstadt also said we would be fast tracked back in if we change our mind and this is very helpful.

FORD IN PLEA FOR TARIFF FREE TRADE

Ford has joined the chorus of industrial voices pleading for us to maintain tariff free access to the single market (HERE).  And in another piece, the head of a European group of industrialists says the governments plans for an interventionist policy for industry will not make up for the loss of EU membership (HERE).

Britain's proposed drive to foster manufacturing and technology after leaving the European Union will do little to offset the damage from losing access to the trade bloc, the spokesman for an elite club of some 50 European industry bosses said.

MAY'S VISIT TO MEET TRUMP

Mrs May's visit to meet Trump is a national embarrassment. This is what Brexit is reducing us to. Her visit follows a speech where she calls for us and the Americans to become leaders of a rules based global trading system and coincides with Trump's spokesman slapping a 20% tariff on Mexican goods to pay for his wall. So much for rules! The New York Times says her alignment with Trump even threatens the world order (HERE).

Trump is an idiot and a dangerous one. He may well be removed from office for corruption or something else and she is going to look like a complete fool and is deluded if she think we will get a good deal (HERE).  Angela Merkel is far more measured and circumspect and looks like a leader.

As was obvious immediately, the 20% tariff will actually be paid by the American consumer and not by the Mexico as Trump has repeatedly promised. I note this morning the US administration is back pedalling on the tariff announced yesterday. Like Mrs May it looks like they're making it up as they go along.

NOW WE'RE FINALLY TO GET A WHITE PAPER

Yesterday the government in the form of David Davis, was adamant there would be no white paper and the PMs speech last week was all that we were going to get. Today, as confirmation they are making it all up as they go along, the PM announces at question time that they will publish a white paper but no date has been given (HERE).

The Article 50 bill is scheduled to be published tomorrow so MPs will be expected to pass this before the white paper presumably? Isn't this putting the cart before the horse?

SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST MAY

The Supreme Court had ruled the government must obtain parliament's permission to activate Article 50 through primary legislation (HERE). This is no more than was expected although the verdict was reached through an 8:3 majority.

There seems no difficulty in getting this through both houses so it's surprising the government decided to drag it all out.

However, the opposition is now demanding a white paper and the original people's challenge are seeking funds to launch further legal attempts to help pro EU MPs wrest control of the negotiation form the government and ensure that the concerns of ordinary citizens are taken into account (HERE). 

EU PARLIAMENT TO FLEX ITS MUSCLES

In an interview with Manfred Weber, leader of the largest party group in the EU parliament (HERE), it is clear that the parliament is going to be a stumbling block in the negotiations. His thinking is the same as mine. He says we want a free trade deal which is more or less than same as tariff free access to the single market, something he says will not happen. We want to continue with the cooperation on university research and security. We also want to remain in the medicines agency (HERE).

He says he listens to all this and is amazed we are telling ourselves that Brexit means Brexit! And then ominously, he says parliament will be a very difficult partner in the negotiations.

IDS AND UNSTYMIED IGNORANCE!

It is worrying when a former party leader makes demonstrably false claims about the Supreme Court's judgement yesterday. He called (HERE) the court self appointed when it isn't and said it was telling parliament what to do when it didn't. He then suggested that there was a question about who had sovereignty judges or Parliament.

A solicitor writing on his own blog described ID'S unstymied ignorance and base stupidity.

This is typical of Duncan Smith. He seems to know nothing but pontificates on everything. His understanding of the EU is utterly lamentable. If he truly understood it he would be a Europhile!

IMMIGRATION NOT A PRIORITY FOR THE YOUNG

A new poll (HERE) suggests that controlling immigration is the lowest priority out of a list of 22 topics that worry them post brexit.

I think this shows once again it is only a matter of time before we rejoin - if we ever leave.

JOHN LONGWORTH

John Longworth, former chief of the British Chambers of Commerce, and Owen Patterson have visited Germany to try and convince German industry to press Mrs Merkel to grant the UK tariff free access to the single market. The BBC say the German audience were not impressed (HERE).

Will they come back chastened?  No! They will continue to argue that the EU will grant us all sorts of privileges. Mr Longworth should have visited German industry before he campaigned for us to leave and become a global leader in trade. He might have realised we are light years behind the Germans. What a pair of numpties.

BAD NEWS BEGINS TO EMERGE

The banks are now convince we will lose access to the single market and are said to be accelerating plans to pull staff out of London (HERE). With the legal judgement coming tomorrow the government are said to have prepared four different versions of the Article 50 bill, depending on what the Supreme Court says (HERE) although the Telegraph thinks it is "in the balance". We shall see.

Northern Ireland's exit from the EU will destroy the peace deal. Apparently the Good Friday agreement gives people in the north rights to Irish citizenship and this will be difficult if not impossible to continue to have effect (HERE).

Meanwhile a cross party group of MPs are trying to block plans for what they call a hard brexit (HERE).  The BBC have a report about the difficulty under WTO rules to have what the PM describes as "sectoral deals" since and free trade agreement has to cover "all or substantially all" trade between two countries (HERE) and finally, retail sales took a nose dive in December (HERE). Since consumer spending is what is keeping the economy going these are dangerous times.

Prosper like never before!

TOYOTA CONSIDERING HOW TO SURVIVE AFTER BREXIT

Toyota (HERE) have said they are now going to consider, along with their suppliers, how they can survive in the UK after the prime minister outlined her plan to take the UK out of the single market and the customs union. We don't yet know the terms of the deal with Nissan but it looks like the taxpayer may be saddled with a big bill!

What Jaguar Land Rover and BMW are thinking or planning we don't yet know.

Update: Nissan have now said they would "re-evaluate" their investment in the UK if competitiveness is adversely impacted by the terms of the deal (HERE). So perhaps the bill will will be even bigger. And Hitachi are suggesting their plant may also be affected when it begins to export after 2019 (HERE).

Update: Now Airbus are suggesting that brexit has put Britain's aerospace industry "in a dangerous place" (HERE).

"DOOM MONGERS" PROVED RIGHT?

It looks like the so-called doom mongers are going to be proved correct. Only the timing seems to have been wrong (HERE). Simon Jenkins says any fool can predict rain, it takes a genius to predict when it will fall.

People moving house is at the lowest for five years (HERE). With banks moving out (HERE), Toyota suggesting they are looking at how they can survive in the UK, retail sales down (HERE) and inflation rising, it all looks more or less as predicted albeit a bit delayed. 

BANKS ANNOUNCE MOVES

Banks are now beginning to announce staff transfers into the EU (HERE). While this will not result in London losing its status as Europe's leading financial centre, it will weaken it and strengthen Frankfurt and Paris. Tax revenue from these highly paid jobs will go to exchequers in Europe and not to The Treasury. So, we will lose.

And while only a couple of banks have said they will mover operations so far, Goldman Sachs are considering moving 3000 jobs to Frankfurt  (HERE) and others are bound to follow. I wonder if brexiteers can see writing beginning to appear on the wall.

Update: Poland is trying to attract 30,000 jobs away from the UK after brexit (HERE).

TRADE DEALS, TRADE DEALS

All the talk of trade deals is amusing, or it would be if it weren’t so serious. Boris thinks we can pencil them in on the back of an envelope (HERE), no really! They seem to think these deals will be an unalloyed success for us but actually they may not. We run a surplus with the USA but if BoJo believes we can do the same with South Korea or even India he may be in for a surprise. We will probably run a deficit and the pound will fall to balance up the trade gap – unless we can attract more and more foreign money. And as a Chinese business man said recently we were a door into the EU, after Brexit we will become a door to nowhere so foreign direct investment will be far more difficult to come by.

Also, most trade deals involve goods and not services which make up 80% of our economy. So we will be operating to our partners strengths and our weaknesses. This may not end well.

And we are in for a long period of upheaval. Trade deals involve each party supplying what they’re good at. This usually means jobs in the importing nation are lost and effectively go to the exporting country. Inevitably there will be some churning of jobs, lost in some sectors but gained in others.

If we sign up a lot of new trade deals, one can foresee a lot of unhappiness among workers whose jobs are lost.

MRS MAY'S SPEECH OUTLINES THE OBJECTIVES

Mrs May has set out some of the principles and objectives that will be the basis of her negotiation (HERE). As you might expect there is a lot of cake to have and eat. She is also adopting the Arthur Scargill method which is to demand everything and then blame all the subsequent damage on your opponent when they don't accede to your demands. She says it would be an act of “calamitous self-harm” if the EU do not grant us friction free access to their market. Note no mention of the self harm that we have done to ourselves, only the menacing demand that unless they grant what we want the UK will become an off shore tax haven with low regulatory requirements.

As usual we want to cherry pick. Europe must be heartily sick of us, always stamping our feet in a tantrum because things aren’t going our way. Reaction has been predictable. The Daily Mail is delighted but in Europe they are less happy (HERE).

The best comment comes from a Belgian journalist (HERE) who says there is the delusion here that the EU will be damaged more than the UK but this morning in Europe all the talk and analysis is about how much Brexit is going to hurt us and how very, very long the process will be.

It all begins to resemble an England football match. First comes the drinking and the bellowed, foul mouthed bravado, the talking up of a great victory. Then the abject failure and recriminations followed by the hangover and the long, slow build up to the next delusion when it is all repeat again. We never learn do we?

Some more reaction can be found (HERE). Die Welt's headline is that Mrs May is leading us into isolation and I agree with this. Some people including Sir Andrew Cahn (HERE), our former single market advisor, think the EU has already won the first round by forcing Mrs May to announce we are exiting the single market, something we did not want to do.

DIE WELT'S VIEW OF MAY'S SPEECH

There is fascinating piece in Die Welt's on-line in English in response to Mrs May's speech on Tuesday (HERE). It notes that many of her points began with "I want" and says she is blind to reality.

Far from being a conciliatory address, May's speech was a catalogue of demands topped with a dash of threat. A great many of her sentences began with: "I want."

And

She wants to keep one foot in the customs union but hopes to keep the other outside -- though she didn't explain how she intends to perform this bit of gymnastics. The disadvantage of May's speech is that she has now convinced the rest of Europe beyond a shadow of a doubt that the British government isn't just nasty, but is also prepared to take the gloves off.

I am afraid that it is a frighteningly rational setting out of the view inside the EU. The threats make us look like a small time thug working a protection racket a bit like the Monty Python sketch show gangsters threatening the MoD. As the piece notes, we have opted for the path of wilful self mutilation.

LILLEY WRONG ON TRADE

Peter Lilley has a piece in Brexit Central (HERE) where he argues we will be better off even if we revert to WTO rules. Because we import more from the EU that we export to it he claims:

"the Treasury would collect £12.3 billion in tariffs on imports from the EU whereas our exporters would pay only £6.5 billion tariffs to continental governments"

This is in my opinion, to misunderstand the way tariffs work. Exporters in the EU may well pay £12.3 billion to our treasury but they will collect it (or a lot of it) from the UK buyer. In other words the money is akin to a tax that we will pay ourselves. Mr Lilley seems to believe that European exporters will all bear the tariffs themselves - without increasing prices - which seems a bit naive. They may have to absorb some of the cost but my guess is most of it will be passed on and they will probably lose a little market share.

Depending on which market is affected this may be good news for home based manufacturers but in other areas there may be no home based supplier and so all prices will increase by the amount of the tariff. We will certainly be the loser.

INFLATION RATE - CPI HITS 1.6% & RPI 2.5%

December's inflation increased to 1.6% as measured by the Consumer Prices Index or CPI (HERE). The old RPI measure rose to 2.5%. This is more than was forecast by economists and is a portent of things to come. It overshadows Mrs May's speech later today on the main negotiating points for brexit and will probably affect the pound which recovered a little of yesterday's losses overnight.

On the news it was trading almost one percent up on last night's close. I assume traders think this will lead eventually to a rise in interest rates.  Not good new for those in debt.

PAUL JOHNSON IFS DEFENDS HIS POSITION

Paul Johnson, the much respected director of the IFS has been speaking to the Huffington Post (HERE). He takes issue with the Daily Mail for attacking the IFS for "doom mongering" over a report saying the last decade was the worst for growth since the 1920s. He points out this wasn't even a forecast but a statement of fact!

However, his substantive point is about economic forecasts is that some of them before the referendum were wrong but mainly on timing. The fall in the value of the pound is he says a bit like boiling a frog - it may take some time before the effects come through. Also he says, if trade with our biggest partner is harder, it will make us poorer and “If that doesn’t have a negative economic effect then frankly the economics profession really is in trouble,”

I think this must be the overwhelming view of all right thinking people.

MAY'S SPEECH TOMORROW HITS THE POUND

I expected Mrs May's widely trailed speech tomorrow (HERE), setting out her broad objectives and said to include the UK pulling out of the single market and the customs union, to cause a drop in the pound and so it has proven. Overnight it fell below $1.20 and was trading this morning at $1.20310 about 1.33% below its close on Friday.

What will happen (a) when she announces clearly that we are leaving the single marker and (b) when we actually do pull out is anybody's guess but I'm sure it will not be good.

HAMMOND ISSUES TAX HAVEN ULTIMATUM

Phillip Hammond (HERE) in an interview with a German newspaper has said Britain is willing to rip up its economic model and become the tax haven of Europe if it is shut out of the EU’s single market. This sounds awfully like an ultimatum to me (and I assume to the EU).

Meanwhile it is being reported (HERE) that Holland will block any EU trade deal with the UK unless it signs up to tough tax avoidance regulations preventing it from becoming an attractive offshore haven for multinationals and the rich, the deputy prime minister of the country has said.

This is why any trade deal is going to be difficult and will take up to ten years!

OUTGOING US ENVOY TO EU CRITICISES FARAGE

The outgoing American envoy to the EU, Anthony Gardner, has been highly critical of Nigel Farage (HERE). He believes Farage has been advising Trump's team that more countries are going to exit the EU. Mt Gardner said the former Ukip leader had given the President-elect a false impression that more countries might follow Britain out of the bloc by inflating the level of euroscepticism in Europe.

I am sure he is right since this is Farage's main objective, to see the EU collapse. The envoy said, "A hard Brexit or a fragmentation of the European market would be very bad news for American business."

I'm glad that he can see what Farage and the rest of the rabid brexiteers cannot.

EU CONNECTIONS WON'T END IN 2019 ANYWAY

A couple of items caught my eye this week. Firstly, the BBC reported that we may have to continue paying into the EU budget for years because of "concrete obligations" entered into (HERE) and the whole question may end up in the courts.

And then this piece in The Telegraph (HERE) which was designed I think to cause apoplexy in all those mad brexiteers by claiming we will be subject to EU law for years after we leave!  Great stuff.

DAILY MAIL DOES NOT SEE IRONY

The Daily Mail last week printed an outraged report about the state of the NHS (HERE) and inter alia compared us to the rest of the EU in bed numbers and length of a maternity stays.  The figures are eye opening, particularly in the week when the NHS is under the usual winter pressure and patients are waiting for hours on trolleys in corridors.

The article headline tells its readers we trail the EU average for medics, beds and scanners but the figures for beds is the most shocking. We're well below the average (5.2) with just 2.7 beds per 1000 head of population, with only Ireland and Sweden below us.  But the really shocking figure is Germany with 8.2 and Austria with 7.6 - nearly three times as many as we have. I wonder what patients waiting in a public corridor on a trolley think?

However, the Mail does not mention at all why the EU - a "failing organisation" according to them can arrange things so much better than we can.

LEGAL ISSUES MULTIPLY

Last week saw a number of developments on the legal front. Firstly, The People's Challenge reported that the government has attempted to get an early site of The Supreme Court's judgement but were rebuffed (HERE). It rather looks as if they are starting to panic. The excuse was that they wanted to put contingencies in place!  Amazing.

Then, in Ireland Jolyon Maughan QC (HERE) has released the "letter before action" which is the precursor to starting a legal challenge to get the ECJ to give a ruling on whether or not Article 50 can be revoked. This may mean we will get the chance to vote on the new settlement and reject it if we do not like it.

And finally, and again in Ireland but this time north of the border, the executive has collapsed with the resignation of Martin McGuiness and this has led to suggestions from NI politicians that Mrs May cannot trigger Article 50 until a new executive is in place (HERE). To do so, they say, would be illegal (HERE). New elections will almost certainly be required and this will take at least eight weeks, meaning Article 50 may be delayed by a few weeks or even months.

On top of this Mrs May is to set out the government's thinking on brexit next week and MPs are pressing her to set out her objectives on the single market and the customs union. If she hints that we are to leave one or both the pound is likely to come under increased pressure. She is in an impossible position. I wouldn't like to be her speech writer.

TELEGRAPH SEES "THRIVING" ECONOMY

The Telegraph has another completely unbalanced "whistling to keep the spirits up" piece (HERE). They say there are five signs that the economy is thriving: a rise in industrial output and the FTSE 100, news that shoppers are still buying, housebuilders posting strong results for last year and Mark Carner rowing back a little from his forecasts. All of this let us remember while we are still in the EU!

But in the same piece it warns of inflation, fears of a housing crash, a surprise slowdown in construction and the widening trade deficit. In other words five signs the economy is not doing very well.

They also say the pound has regained "momentum". It fell against the Euro by 0.33% and was flat against the dollar!  Some momentum.

GOVT SAYS IT WILL LOSE LEGAL CHALLENGE

The government is apparently resigned to losing the legal challenge by 7 to 4 at The Supreme Court as reported by The Guardian (HERE). The only surprise is that four of the justices think the government's argument holds water.  We shall see when the verdict is announced.

TRADE GAP WIDENED IN DECEMBER

The Guardian (HERE) report on the latest ONS figures on the economy which show the trade gap widened in December by £2.6 billion. Exports increased by £700 million but imports also rose by £3.3 billion.  Reuters' take on it is HERE

So much for the depreciating pound being a corrective to our record trade deficit.

UK TO LEAVE THE SINGLE MARKET?

Theresa May appeared on TV at the weekend in order to counter the impression that she does not know what she is doing. Unfortunately, it only seemed to confirm that she doesn't. We learned very little as usual.

What she did say was the UK would have control of its borders and the best possible trade deal with the EU. She didn't commit to maintaining "single market access", and she suggested that people who thought the country could keep "bits of EU membership" were missing the point that it "would be leaving". If one believes that the single market is indeed a "bit" of the EU then it looks like we're leaving.

I note the pound dropped 0.87% against the dollar ($1.21770) and 1.04% against the Euro (now trading at 1.15440). Every time she suggests we will have a hard brexit the pound falls.  If this turns out to be the actual plan the markets will pronounce on it.

TORY DONOR THREATENS TO STOP FUNDING PARTY

A supporter of the conservative party has threatened to stop funding if Mrs May takes us out of the single market (HERE). Sir Andrew Cook, chairman of William Cook Holdings, has said at least one of his factories employing 200 people will be threatened if Britain goes for a hard brexit.

There will I am sure be a list of rich brexiteers (of which there are many) who will step in and offer financial support but it must be worrying to Theresa May that long term donors like Mr Cook are making it clear how much being in the single market means to them and their companies.

CHARLES "MAD CHARLIE" MOORE

The tone of some brexiteers is beginning to wear a little thin. They have so little confidence that they have to continually press the case for leaving as if they were still campaigning.  Charles Moore in this Saturday's Telegraph has written a classic (HERE).  The headline says it all:

Only those who don't want to leave see Brexit as mind-blowingly complicated

Well of course this is true, as a five year old could tell you. And so is the opposite although he doesn't say so. Only those who don't want to remain see Brexit as very simple. In fact at the end of the article he says, "Surely brexit is in that category of things which are simple but not easy" as if it can be likened to chopping a tree down or clearing the guttering on your three storey town house.

The real question for Mr Moore is - will leaving be "mind blowingly complicated" or not? Most people, even David Davis, say it will be the most complex task undertaken by the British government since 1945. I look forward to the day Mr Moore admits he was wrong about brexit.

FORMER EU ENVOY NOW QUITS CIVIL SERVICE

Sir Ivan Rogers who resigned last week as UK envoy to the EU (HERE) has now resigned from the civil service (HERE) or at least he has indicated he does not want another job in government. This does not surprise me after the coverage he has had from the mad brexit press.

However, a Canadian who was closely involved with the CETA trade negotiations has written a piece for The Observer (HERE) where he says Sir Ivan was right and a UK/EU trade deal could take ten years to settle. He says:

“Were they [pro brexit UK officials] willing to realistically discuss options for Brexit, as opposed to telling you what they intend to do in a general sense while dismissing the obvious concerns, they may have a chance to minimise the damage from the potentially catastrophic decision to leave. This seems increasingly unlikely. Let’s hope that the courts, parliament and, ultimately, the electorate do it for them.”

POLL SAYS ONLY 11% THINK GOVT IS DOING A GOOD JOB ON BREXIT

It will come as no surprise to anyone that just 11% of the population think the government is doing a good job on brexit according to a poll for Sky News(HERE).

I don't know what it looks like from the inside but from the outside it looks like a shambles.

The brexiteers suggested the government should have prepared for the outcome before the vote. Given that it as so far taken six months to get precisely nowhere I wonder what resources they would have wanted to be spent on brexit before June 23rd? 

SINGLE MARKET NOT FOR SALE

A former top official in the EU Jonathan Faull has said that access to the single market is not something you can buy (HERE). There has been some suggestions that David Davis has been talking about an option that allows us tariff free access in return for a fee but Mr Faull seems to think this is not something that would find favour in Brussels.

He says you are either in the single market or you are a foreign country. It looks like a hard brexit to me.

NEW RESEARCH SHOWS MORE OPTIMISTIC BREXIT SCENARIO

At last there appears to be some serious research showing that brexit may be better than we imagine. The Centre for Business Studies at Cambridge (HERE) has produced a report which casts doubt on some of the Treasury's more pessimistic post brexit forecasts which The Telegraph has seized on (HERE).

The report (HERE) may well be right, after all we are still in the realms of forecasts and assumptions but a note of caution is needed. The CBS uses a completely different model to the one used by the OBR and it has only five years of experience and they themselves say:

From the outset we need to say that no normal forecast is possible. The CBR model is an econometric model which uses a large set of equations to forecast future trends, each equation based on data covering the last few decades of UK economic behaviour. Because this period has been almost wholly one in which the UK has been a member of the EU, the equations contain little or no direct information about how the UK would fare outside the EU. Put simply, leaving the EU is a unique event; no country has ever done this.

We will need to wait until 2025 to see if they or the OBR are right. My money is on the OBR.

CHANGE BRITAIN MISLEADS AGAIN

The leave campaign's new "think" tank, Change Britain is at it again. After producing a highly misleading report (HERE) they are now claiming that new trade deals will create 400,000 new jobs.

However, as many people have pointed out (HERE), (HERE) and (HERE), new trade deals are designed to increase both exports and imports so jobs created are usually balanced by jobs lost through importing more stuff. Change Britain ignores any job losses and focuses entirely on new jobs created by additional exports.  As several experts have said, the number of jobs created is usually between zero and a negligible number and dismiss the report as "entirely fictional".

This is all very worrying. If the people most in favour of leaving cannot show conclusively without resorting to misleading figures that the UK will be better off what chance do we stand?

UK ENVOY TO EU RESIGNS

Sir Ivan Rogers, our most senior envoy to the EU has resigned to predictable comments from both sides of the argument. InFacts (HERE) thinks we will be stuck in denial and The Guardian (HERE) quotes someone as saying it is the wilful destruction of EU expertise. Meanwhile in The Spectator a contributor says brexiteers will cheer his departure (HERE) and The Telegraph (HERE) says Mrs May should recruit someone who is positive about brexit.

This government's attitude to experts is troubling.  They may have difficulty finding someone sane who will tell them that throwing the nation off a cliff is a good thing. Anyone who understands the EU will surely not be in favour of leaving.  Those in favour of leaving will not understand the EU.

His replacement will therefore be a matter of some interest. The New Statesman (HERE) says he or she will need rose tinted spectacles and I suspect, a thick skin.

CONTROLLING IMMIGRATION

James Forsyth writing in a Spectator blog (HERE) thinks getting back parliamentary control will ameliorate some of the problems with immigration and he may be right. But I rather think he is missing the most important point. If we kick out government's that do not control immigration we will simply keep changing them until we get one that does.  But unfortunately it will probably crash the economy.

Some will think this is a price worth paying but this will probably be a tiny minority.

GERMAN CAR BOSS WARNS OF MISSION IMPOSSIBLE

The head of the German automobile industry, Matthias Wissman, has written for a German newsparer saying that it would be mission impossible because Britain and the EU would face "massive negative effects" if we leave the single market (HERE).

Some 57 per cent of the cars made in Britain are purchased by buyers in the rest of the EU. The next largest market is the US (12 per cent), followed by China (7 per cent).

In October, Matthias Wissmann warned that the UK leaving the single market could force companies to move their business elsewhere. His comments marked the first time a senior figure in the German car industry publicly outlined the consequences from a change to Britain’s trading arrangements with the EU.

LEAVE MEANS LEAVE URGES HARD BREXIT

The campaigning group Leave Means Leave are urging the PM to get out of the EU with a hard brexit and without any transitional deal (HERE).  Not satisfied with getting us over the cliff they want us to have a jetpack on the way down.

"The UK must leave the EU within two years of triggering Article 50," Richard Tice and the completely mad John Longworth, the co-chairmen of the organisation, wrote in a letter to the prime minister setting out their principles for the talks ahead.

Meanwhile another prominent brexiteer Moulton was on radio 4 yesterday morning says he was and is still in favour of Brexit but he admits to being surprised how complicated it all is. I am surprised that he is surprised. Given all that was said and published by those in government who knew just how difficult it would be it is amazing that any intelligent human being could be surprised.

Essentially he says no one knows what Brexit is going to be like and yet he is still in favour of it!

He always seemed to me a smart business man but he seems to think we are in the worst possible position now and hence anything is preferable to it. We shall see.