Monday, 27 June 2016

A legal opinion on triggering article 50

An American broadcaster has interviewed a lawyer in Brussels about Article 50 (HERE) on a page showing UK government 10 year bond yields have dropped below 1% for the first time ever. More on this in a future post.

The lawyer says the EU referendum last week was not a legally binding one. It was advisory only and to give it legal force a bill has to go through parliament and she says ( about 20 secs into the video) it just needs a simple majority but this is not a foregone conclusion. The House has a clear, substantial majority against Brexit and while ignoring the electorates wishes is not going to be easy the government has only a small majority and it would take a few rebels on the conservative benches working with Labour and the SNP to prevent it passing through.

If the bad news keeps coming at the rate it has been in the past few days - for example if a major car manufacturer announced it was halting all future investment and pulling out over a period of time because of Brexit - it can easily be imagined that some MPs might vote against.

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