GDP figures released yesterday showed a healthy growth rate of 0.6% in the second quarter up to the end of June (HERE). However, by more or less common consent this was the last hurrah (see HERE) for the UK economy before Brexit problems begin to show through. The exception to this was The Daily Express which today has a headline about Booming Britain (HERE).
However, reading the details of the coverage it is clear that growth was stronger in April and had already started to taper off by the time of the referendum. And on the same day, the CBI released retail sales figures showing the sharpest fall in four years with retailers cutting orders to suppliers by the most since the 2008-9 financial crisis (HERE). The construction sector actually contracted by 0.4% but it is clear that fears about the vote had a limited effect in the run up to June 23rd.
There is the usual commentary about George Osborne's "gloom lade" forecasts being wrong (see Spectator blogs HERE) but these are all backward looking figures yet and we don't have enough real data to say what is going to happen - but most economists are still betting on a mild recession.
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