Sunday, 24 July 2016

SETTING OUT A COMMON POSITION BEFORE ARTICLE 50 LOOKS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE

Theresa May, sooner or later, is going to have to square the circle. Industry will be pressing hard to retain tariff free access to the single market that accepts 44% of our exports with some even arguing for continued freedom of movement of people.  The vast majority of economists warn that falling back on WTO rules risks massive damage to our economy.  The City of London worries that it will be diminished with huge loss of tax revenues to the exchequer.

On the other hand hard liners like Bill Cash, the MP says we must sever all ties (HERE).  But Keith Vaz, another MP and select committee chairman, says we need to be involved in anti-terrorism measures (HERE). This is going to take the wisdom of Solomon to resolve, if it can be resolved at all.  One side or the other is going to be severely disappointed.

My personal opinion is that in the long term nothing of substance will change. We will be marginally poorer with less influence but those who thought our problems were all down to the EU are in for a surprise.

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