Saturday, 20 August 2016

IS THE ECONOMY DOING WELL OR NOT?

Matthew Lynn (see side bar) has written another piece for his Spectator blog (HERE) with the usual stuff about economists taking a battering rather then the economy.  This follows the first hard data out this week suggesting employment and retail sales held up post Brexit vote. He says the economy was doing fine before the vote (why did he urge us to leave then?) and there was no real reason to expect that to change.

However, he adds the usual caveat in the article that most forecasters still predict a recession in 2017 and this, he concedes, may still happen.  It doesn't seem to have occurred to him that we aren't there yet so the reputation of economists - unlike his own - is quite safe for now.

The Guardian (HERE) gives a more analytical view of the data out this week showing a mix of good and bad news but overall, as the ONS have admitted, it is still far too early to tell.  The oil tanker has changed course but we don't yet know if it's heading for a reef or the open sea.

No comments:

Post a Comment