The government has a bit of a dilemma coming up. Article 50 is to be triggered by the end of March 2017 but it seems clear this will be done before two absolutely key points are certain.
Firstly, we do not yet know if Article 50 is irrevocable or not and this would need to be clarified by the ECJ. The actual legal position may not be known when it is triggered – unless the UK applies to the ECJ beforehand and it is not clear they would even want to do this.
Secondly, we don't know if trade negotiations will take place in parallel with withdrawal talks or will have to wait until after we get out. This is important. David Davis thinks they will be simultaneous based on a phrase in Article 50 that says the agreement is to be concluded “taking account of their future relationship” with the EU. The EU's trade commissioner has said it would be illegal to negotiate a trade deal before we leave. The EU may even be daring us to take the risk.
Think about this. It really is a leap into the unknown. No doubt the government will try to get more clarity but at the moment the EU are refusing any pre-negotiations. If Mrs May sends the Article 50 letter without knowing these two things with absolute certainty it will be a massive gamble.
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