First, the Irish PM Enda Kenny warns that two years is nowhere near long enough to negotiate a trade deal and there will need to be a transitional arrangement (HERE) dashing hopes of a "quickie divorce" beloved of the leave campaign.
Then Charles Grant, director at the think tank Centre for European Reform (HERE), said seeking a transition deal could delay key aims of May’s Brexit negotiations such as immigration controls and freedom from European court of justice rulings.
“May now understands the need for a transitional deal to cover the period between when the UK leaves the EU and when a new free trade agreement comes into effect, several years later,” he said.
“But reaching agreement on a transitional deal will be fiendishly difficult: the EU will insist that the UK accept free movement and European court of justice rulings during the transition, but that may be politically unacceptable for May. Some Brussels officials therefore think the talks may break down without agreement on a transitional deal.”
One senior Tory MP also told the Guardian that a transitional arrangement could prove politically very difficult to sell if it meant continuation of free movement into 2020 going into the next election.
The view about the difficulty of an interim deal was echoed in Germany, where officials have warned that agreeing on a transitional agreement may be as complicated and laborious as agreeing on a final Brexit deal.
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