BIG BANKS EXPECT TO LOSE 35,000 JOBS IN THE CITY

Bloomberg (HERE) is reporting that CityUk, a lobbying group for many of London's financial institutions, are suggesting 35,000 jobs could be lost with most going either to Dublin or Frankfurt. With a hard brexit coming up this looks like a certainty.

BANKS PREPARING TO MOVE OUT OF UK

U.S. bank Citi is preparing to move up to 900 jobs from London to Dublin as part of its contingency plans for Britain's exit from the European Union, the Sunday Times reported (HERE). This should come as no surprise given the lack of clarity in government planning.

At the same time the RBS chairman, Sir Howard Davies, is pleading for some sort of transitional arrangement after we leave (HERE) and says banks are not going to wait to see the government's full negotiating position and will mover before this happens.

And of course, we won't even know if a transitional deal is on offer until after Article 50 is triggered. This would be like jumping out of an aircraft without knowing for sure if you have a parachute.

PHILLIP HAMMOND MEETS THE BANKS

There is a meeting today at The Treasury between Phillip Hammond and various large bank and financial institutions (HERE). They are apparently seeking clarity on the government's plans for Brexit and in particular what this will mean for the passporting system that allows them to trade with other EU countries.  Banks want to keep the status quo according to Bloomberg (HERE).

I am sure they will be disappointed. I don't think the government knows what it will get from the EU and even if it did, they will not tell the banks in case (a) it's bad news and (b) it leaks out.  One unnamed banker said:

"If the government doesn't have a clear idea of what it wants the banks will just go," said one senior banking source, who asked not to be named. "They are not going to be hanging around waiting for the cliff edge."

I don't know what the government are expecting. The EU have already made it perfectly clear that banks will lose access if we leave (the last time just a few days ago HERE) but they continue to hold out the prospect that something can be negotiated. Other countries have no interest in conceding passporting rights when it is they who will gain when banks move to the EU.  Bankers are among the most cynical of people and if one bank announces a major relocation you can bet there will be a domino effect.

This morning's Brexit Bulletin from Bloomberg says:

"Hammond's meeting is well timed. UBS Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said yesterday that he may have to move as many as 1,500 jobs, the equivalent of 30 percent of the total, from the U.K. Lloyds of London Chairman John Nelson warned on Monday that he and other insurers would be forced to go elsewhere if the government fails to secure continued access to the single market."