TELEGRAPH FORECASTS STERLING WILL BOUNCE BACK IN 2017

The Telegraph, whistling to keep up their spirits, carry a report claiming that the pound will "bounce back" this years to $1.38 or so.  They say the currency is seriously undervalued. (HERE).

This is the same newspaper that said it was overvalued last year!

TELEGRAPH THINKS WE'LL GET MONEY FROM EU!

The increasingly delusional Telegraph think we will get money back from the EU after we leave (HERE).  This will be absolutely amazing if true - but I doubt it is.

TELEGRAPH HAS PROBLEMS DECIDING WHAT'S HAPPENING

The Telegraph has some mixed messages today. Alastair Heath says Brexit hasn't even started yet and Britain is thriving (HERE) while at the same time the "failing" Eurozone has overtaken us (HERE) and in yet another piece it says the FTSE hit new heights while the pound fell on a resurgent dollar and "Brexit fears".

Meanwhile in the Brexit Podcast they say the British people took a leap in the dark and landed safely (HERE). It almost seems a shame to tell them we haven't actually left the cliff yet!

What can you say about that except, Oh dear, Oh dear, Oh dear.

THE TELEGRAPH'S ROSE TINTED SPECS

The Telegraph (HERE) has a piece this week claiming the UK economy is firing on all cylinders as signs of more balanced growth emerge. It's true the economy has held up well over the past few months but inflation is creeping up and labour shortages are appearing. I am certain it is just a matter of time before it all begins to go south. 

When it does I'll remind The Telegraph what it said.

"DOOM MONGERS" PROVED RIGHT?

It looks like the so-called doom mongers are going to be proved correct. Only the timing seems to have been wrong (HERE). Simon Jenkins says any fool can predict rain, it takes a genius to predict when it will fall.

People moving house is at the lowest for five years (HERE). With banks moving out (HERE), Toyota suggesting they are looking at how they can survive in the UK, retail sales down (HERE) and inflation rising, it all looks more or less as predicted albeit a bit delayed. 

DIE WELT'S VIEW OF MAY'S SPEECH

There is fascinating piece in Die Welt's on-line in English in response to Mrs May's speech on Tuesday (HERE). It notes that many of her points began with "I want" and says she is blind to reality.

Far from being a conciliatory address, May's speech was a catalogue of demands topped with a dash of threat. A great many of her sentences began with: "I want."

And

She wants to keep one foot in the customs union but hopes to keep the other outside -- though she didn't explain how she intends to perform this bit of gymnastics. The disadvantage of May's speech is that she has now convinced the rest of Europe beyond a shadow of a doubt that the British government isn't just nasty, but is also prepared to take the gloves off.

I am afraid that it is a frighteningly rational setting out of the view inside the EU. The threats make us look like a small time thug working a protection racket a bit like the Monty Python sketch show gangsters threatening the MoD. As the piece notes, we have opted for the path of wilful self mutilation.

CHARLES "MAD CHARLIE" MOORE

The tone of some brexiteers is beginning to wear a little thin. They have so little confidence that they have to continually press the case for leaving as if they were still campaigning.  Charles Moore in this Saturday's Telegraph has written a classic (HERE).  The headline says it all:

Only those who don't want to leave see Brexit as mind-blowingly complicated

Well of course this is true, as a five year old could tell you. And so is the opposite although he doesn't say so. Only those who don't want to remain see Brexit as very simple. In fact at the end of the article he says, "Surely brexit is in that category of things which are simple but not easy" as if it can be likened to chopping a tree down or clearing the guttering on your three storey town house.

The real question for Mr Moore is - will leaving be "mind blowingly complicated" or not? Most people, even David Davis, say it will be the most complex task undertaken by the British government since 1945. I look forward to the day Mr Moore admits he was wrong about brexit.

WE MAY BE ON THE CUSP OF A BOOM (NO, REALLY)

Matthew Lynn (who forecast our growth in 2017 will be far ahead of the EU - see sidebar) is at it again (HERE). He thinks brexit is blinding us to the real danger of an out of control boom!

Mr Lynn seems to be the only commentator actually forecasting this so it may be that he has better foresight than everyone else - or he's just plain wrong.

MAY LACKS COURAGE TO EXPLAIN REALITIES OF BREXIT

In a remarkably astute piece, the head of the First Division Association, Dave Penman says the PM is struggling to find the political courage to admit there will be difficulties with the brexit negotiation (HERE). He says the civil service is not going to be able to fulfill all of the ordinary policy agenda and cope with the brexit negotiations which are said to be the most complex we have ever undertaken. The civil service is at its smallest for many years but faces a huge task. The BBC report it HERE

I have always thought that this is what will happen.  Davis, Fox, Johnson, Gove and all the others will never admit to having any doubts and will take us all over a cliff if it means saving face. We are all going to pay a very high price for their face.

SELF DELUSION IN THE PRESS

Both The Telegraph (HERE) and The Spectator (HERE) and probably others too, have run editorial pieces this week exhorting everyone to be optimistic about Britain’s future outside the EU. Like Mrs May they now expect remainers to do a volte face and become enthusiastic leavers. This is not going to happen.

In many ways the journalists who produce these pieces have little or no idea what they are talking about but have an infinite capacity for self-delusion, a bit like England football supporters. No matter what the evidence of past performance is they continue to have an unshakeable belief in the team. They both seem to forget what life was like in the late 60s and early 70s and why we joined the EU in the first place. 

At least then we had industries like steel, cars, tyres, motorbikes, cement, energy, chocolate and a host of others. They are now either gone or are foreign owned. If we were unable to succeed then how on earth do they think we'll do it now?

HANNAN ALWAYS THE OPTIMIST

Hannan says we will get a good deal from the EU (HERE) in his usual blindly optimistic way. It occurred to me that whatever deal we do get from the EU Mr Hannan will tell us it is a good one, the absolute bees kness. No matter that we will be significantly poorer, that unemployment will rise and the UK will shatter. No, they will be as nothing compared to the deal Theresa May signs up to.

The New Statesman has a take down of Hannan's piece on Conservative Home (HERE) which is always worth reading.  Nationalists like Hannan are, as Orwell noted, capable of stunning self deception in their cause.

ARE THE REASONS FOR BREXIT BECOMING CLEAR

Jacob Rees Mogg (HERE) is saying that after Brexit we can slash environmental and safety standards "a very long way". So it looks like the main objective for Mr Rees Mogg is to make Britain the sweatshop capital of the world and if a workers have to suffer a few accidents and ill health this is all OK.

Germany, France, Italy, Holland, Belgium are all more productive than we are inside the EU and apparently weighed down with all those expensive environmental and safety regulations. They are 20-30% more productive and instead of addressing the real problems, his answer is to try and close the gap by cutting standards. It won't work.

JOHN LONGWORTH

The former head of the CBI John Longworth, an enthusiastic leave campaigner has an item in the conservative home blog (HERE) where he talks about the "wreckers and Remainers" bringing "mendacious" court cases. 

He says, "Brexit provides Britain with an unparalleled opportunity to crystallise the taking-back of control of our own affairs, and then to open up the potentially huge economic benefits that will arise from a clean and early exit from the EU. Yet deeply-in-denial Remainers will stop at nothing in their attempts to at best delay or water down Brexit – and, at worst, to stop it entirely".

Racing towards the cliff edge, Mr Longworth rages against anybody whose foot might look as if it's hovering anywhere near the brakes. If anyone is in denial it is him.

THE £32 BILLION BREXIT DIVIDEND IS A MYTH - BBC

The BBC (HERE) have comprehensively debunked the suggestion from Change Britain - a Leave campaign pressure group - that there is a £32 billion "dividend" in the autumn statement.  There won't be any dividend and in 2019-20 instead of having an extra £13 billion we will need to borrow £14.7 billion MORE.

Of course, leavers will only see the headline and think it's true.  We really are in a post-truth world.

NEW YORK TIMES THINKS THE BREXIT PARTY ENDED THIS WEEK

The New York Times has an article (HERE) suggesting the fall in the pound's value this week to a record low marks the end of the party for Brexiteers.

“The world believes that the U.K. is going to be poorer in the future, and find it more expensive to trade,” said Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent research institution in London. “Essentially, the world is betting against the pound.” And against the British economy.

Adam S. Posen, a former member of the rate-setting committee at the Bank of England, and now president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington said,

“Somehow, a whole combination of people were in denial up until now,” 

“There were the people who thought Brexit would be reversed, there were the people who delusionally thought there would be a soft Brexit, and all the northern Europeans would be nice to them. And there were people who believed that this crew in charge of the British negotiations were somehow going to strike a good deal. All of the delusions have run out of material.”

Strange how sometimes it's good to see how others see us.

TELEGRAPH CROWING EARLY

The Telegraph has an editorial today (HERE) crowing that the economy has not been plunged into economic darkness as the "experts" predicted.  They don't seem to realise nothing has actually happened yet. The experts were told by David Cameron that Article 50 would be triggered immediately after the vote and they predicted chaos on that basis.

Well, three months have gone by and Article 50 remains untriggered. Hence, nothing has happened to the economy. Let's wait and see what happens. Even the Telegraph is not totally confident:

"Of course, these are early days. The success of Brexit will be measured over years or decades, not months. But even on the evidence available so far, it is safe to conclude that Leave’s scepticism about the gloomy consensus of the experts was justified".

BREXIT CENTRAL UP AND RUNNING

Brexit Central (HERE) is a website hurriedly put together to counter many websites set up by remain campaigners.  It is staffed by dedicated leavers (including support from Matthew Elliot I believe) and edited by a Jonathan Isaby.  I think they were worried that the country might lean back towards remaining in the EU and with some justification.

I signed up for their emails and note that 90% of the postings are references to articles from people saying we need to be optimistic and seize the opportunity Brexit presents. There is little of substance.

On the other hand when I look at the remain camp they mainly focus on the practicalities of what Brexit actually means. Will we have tariff free access to the single market?  Will our financial companies enjoy passporting right?  How will exiting the customs union affect us and in particular the border with Ireland?  On these substantive questions they offer no answers except to dismiss any risks to the economy.

In my opinion they are swimming against a tide. In the end we will have to rejoin. As older people pass away and younger ones come through the demographics of UK opinion will once again become much more pro-European.  The clock is ticking for leavers.  If things do not improve mightily in the next few years they will be in big trouble.  It will not be enough to remain as we are or even for there to be a modest improvement. We really must prosper like never before. Anything less will be seen as failure.

LONDON TO BECOME A POWERHOUSE AFTER BREXIT - REALLY?

The Telegraph is carrying a story here about a report by Price Waterhouse Coopers with the headline suggesting that London will become an economic powerhose after Brexit (HERE). Unfortunately, the text doesn't say anything like this - in fact all the research was done before June 23rd and the report actually says:

“We cannot predict what Brexit may mean to the future of London as a pre-eminent world city, we do know it is today one of the world’s most cosmopolitan and well balanced cities, as shown by our research. Any effects Brexit may have on London will take place in a process that will evolve over time and not overnight,” 

Never let the truth spoil a good headline.

SPECTATOR'S TAKE ON THE BREXIT BOUNCE

Ross Clark, a journalist on The Spectator, has written a typical piece (HERE) about how the Brexit bounce has made the worried remainers and the experts who were behind the warnings look foolish.  He says, "one thing is for sure: those who said that leaving the EU would lead to economic collapse, and who claimed that they couldn’t possibly be wrong because they had a consensus of experts behind them, are already looking a tad silly".

Earlier he talks about the warnings of an "immediate financial meltdown" but doesn't say who actually said this.  I am not surprised because, as he well knows, no one said any such thing.  He does quote Osbourne when he said Brexit might have some advantages but being economically better off wasn't one of them.  I think this is right and the next few years will demonstrate it.  The effects will be slowly felt as every expert said they would.

To imagine that withdrawing from privileged, tariff free access to the world's largest and richest single market is going to improve our prospects is just ridiculous.

TEBBIT WORRIED ABOUT ANTI-BREXIT FORCES

Norman Tebbit has written an article for The Telegraph (HERE) warning that the "vast" forces of  the anti-brexit elite are regrouping.  I assume he means as opposed to the pro-brexit elite of which he is a prominent member.

One half suspects that Mr Tebbit and many others who seem concerned that Brexit is not going to happen are worried that people will not be able to recognise the bright, prosperous sunlit uplands that Brexiteers have promised and perhaps mistake it for an economic calamity. Surely once the £350m per week is flooding into the NHS and our balance of payments deficit turns into an embarrassingly large surplus through the myriad trade deals we will soon be signing, everyone will see the benefits?  Or perhaps he is worried that the scales will drop from leavers eyes?