IRISH UNIFICATION AS PART OF BREXIT?

The Irish PM Enda Kenny has proposed that Irish unification be considered as part of any Brexit negotiation (HERE). How the DUP, who funded the leave campaign are taking this I don't know but it adds to the complexity of the negotiations and will obviously be the beginning of a break-up of the UK.

No doubt some of the Brexiteers will welcome getting shut of the troubled province but I would be very sad to see it go.

BAD NEWS BEGINS TO EMERGE

The banks are now convince we will lose access to the single market and are said to be accelerating plans to pull staff out of London (HERE). With the legal judgement coming tomorrow the government are said to have prepared four different versions of the Article 50 bill, depending on what the Supreme Court says (HERE) although the Telegraph thinks it is "in the balance". We shall see.

Northern Ireland's exit from the EU will destroy the peace deal. Apparently the Good Friday agreement gives people in the north rights to Irish citizenship and this will be difficult if not impossible to continue to have effect (HERE).

Meanwhile a cross party group of MPs are trying to block plans for what they call a hard brexit (HERE).  The BBC have a report about the difficulty under WTO rules to have what the PM describes as "sectoral deals" since and free trade agreement has to cover "all or substantially all" trade between two countries (HERE) and finally, retail sales took a nose dive in December (HERE). Since consumer spending is what is keeping the economy going these are dangerous times.

Prosper like never before!

SCOTLAND PUBLISHES BREXIT PLAN

Nicola Sturgeon has published Scotland's brexit plan (HERE) which involves Scotland remaining in the single market even if the UK as a whole decides to go for a hard brexit.  Whether this has legs or not remains to be seen but it has been produced with a lot of legal and intellectual input so it might be possible.

You can read the whole report HERE

IRISH BORDER PROBLEM

This week there has been a conference in Ireland to look at cross border issues that are inveitably going to arise after brexit (HERE). Enda Kenny warned that the negotiation could get vicious but I was interested in one contribution, presumably from a businessman, about the movement of labour.

If the UK government introduces a points style system for allowing workers in this would be intended to allow highly skilled individuals in but not labourers or those with no skills.  But if there is no hard border between north and south in Ireland controlling this would be impossible. And how then would the EU look at this.  They would surely not be happy to see a rule applying to all other EU citizens being ignored for anyone coming from the republic. This would be discrimination writ large and anathema to the EU.

THE IRISH FEAR BREXIT WILL BE A DISASTER FOR THEM

I pity the Irish. They are good Europeans and in my opinion one of the most cultured nations on earth. We have not done them any favours over the centuries and now Brexit is going to do lasting damage to their economy.

They think it will be a disaster and some firms are going bust already because of the fall in the value of the pound (HERE).  This may even throw north and south together in a way that will help those who want to break up the UK.

NO RETURN TO HARD BORDER IN IRELAND

David Davis says there will not be a return to a "hard" border in Ireland (HERE) but I note he adds that there will be no "unnecessary" barriers to trade.  This leaves the necessary ones for us to worry about.

He also says (HERE) that it's in the long term interests of the EU to grant us tariff free access to the single market.  He seems to think that what the EU was not prepared to give us while we are a member they will concede quite readily when we leave!  Amazing.

Brexiteers want to get their act together. They say (IDS among others) that we just just leave without any trade deal while others, now apparently including the Brexit secretary himself, think tariff free access is vitally important.

GIBRALTAR FACES EXISTENTIAL THREAT

The Independent are reporting the Chief Minister of Gibraltar saying it faces and existential threat if there is a hard Brexit (HERE) meaning if the UK negotiates a complete separation from the EU.

STURGEON IN MORE TALKS WITH GERMANY

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she held “constructive” talks with the German government as she seeks ways of keeping Scotland in the European Union even after the U.K. as a whole voted to leave (HERE).  We are moving inexorably closer to the break up of the United Kingdom.

RISKS TO NORTHERN IRELAND

Northern Ireland is a huge issue in the Brexit negotiations with so many implications for the Union and for security in the province. The New Statesman has an article (HERE) asking if this is the beginning of the end for Northern Ireland's position in the UK while InFacts (HERE) runs another piece suggesting that unification of Ireland is now thinkable.

None of this should be any comfort to the Conservative and Unionist party.

THE IRISH BORDER PROBLEM

After telling us during the referendum campaign that it would be "inconceivable" that border controls would not have to be introduced between the Republic and Northern Ireland, Theresa May now says she will support the Irish government's position that a "hard border" will not be needed (see HERE).

What was inconceivable must now become conceivable - but as yet no one knows how.  Yet another Brexit conundrum to resolve.

COULD SCOTLAND BLOCK BREXIT?

Theresa May has said she will not trigger article 50 until a UK wide approach has been agreed and some people think this puts Nicola Sturgeon in a strong position not to agree an approach (The Independent HERE).

Asked by the BBC’s Andrew Marr whether this meant Scotland had now effectively been given a veto on the UK leaving the EU, Scottish First Minister Ms Sturgeon said: “That appears to be an interpretation that some people put on the Prime Minister’s remarks. Certainly from what she said after the meeting that puts us in a very strong position".

However, the new Brexit secretary, David Davis, insists Scotland cannot have a veto, despite the prime minister suggesting all of the UK should agree a unified approach.

BOJO REAFFIRMS UK COMMITMENT TO GIBRALTAR

In one of his first few announcements as our new foreign secretary, Boris Johnson has reaffirmed Britain's commitment to Gibraltar (HERE) according to Reuters.

How much this will be worth in practice remains to be seen.  Gibraltarians are concerned that leaving the EU will see a return to border controls and restrictions on the movement of people across the border (both ways) with Spain. Brexit is not good news for them at all, no wonder they were over 90% to remain.

GERRY ADAMS ON IRISH UNITY

Gerry Adams has written a piece for the New York Times (HERE) calling for a referendum on Irish Unity following the referendum where the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU.  If Brexit does not bring about tangible improvements and instead, as most experts believe, a mild recession or worse with ongoing financial problems for the UK, the pressure for such a referendum may well increase.

CROSS PARTY GROUP DISCUSSES LOOSENING UK TIES

A cross party group of parliamentarians are said to be discussing a new arrangement for the UK so that it becomes a more federal structure with each country becoming completely sovereign with full control over its own affairs (HERE).

They argue a radical solution is needed to prevent break-up of the UK after the Brexit vote.

Gerry Adams calls for a poll on uniting Ireland

The leader of Sinn Fein has called for a poll (HERE) to see what the Irish people think about uniting the 32 counties, leading potentially to Northern Ireland separating from the UK leaving England and Wales to go it alone.

This might have been unthinkable a few years ago but now?  Who knows?

Nicola Sturgeon announces the Scottish government is to look at legislation ahead of a new independence referendum

Scotland’s first minister, after a cabinet meeting Saturday morning (HERE), announces that she will begin framing legislation to lead to a second referendum about the separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom, bringing to an end a 300 year old partnership.

There is every chance that Scotland will this time vote to separate.

Vote Leave dismissed this as unlikely during the campaign but many now fear the break up of our United Kingdom.