IMMIGRATION NOT A PRIORITY FOR THE YOUNG

A new poll (HERE) suggests that controlling immigration is the lowest priority out of a list of 22 topics that worry them post brexit.

I think this shows once again it is only a matter of time before we rejoin - if we ever leave.

CONTROLLING IMMIGRATION

James Forsyth writing in a Spectator blog (HERE) thinks getting back parliamentary control will ameliorate some of the problems with immigration and he may be right. But I rather think he is missing the most important point. If we kick out government's that do not control immigration we will simply keep changing them until we get one that does.  But unfortunately it will probably crash the economy.

Some will think this is a price worth paying but this will probably be a tiny minority.

MAY SNUBBED ON UK EXPAT RIGHTS

The Telegraph is reporting that Mrs May was greeted with silence when she raised the question of the rights of EU nationals here and UK expats in Europe at a summit this week (HERE). As usual, the pro brexit Telegraph makes it appear as if we were the wronged party rather than the one to blame for the mess.

Apparently, when the silence went on for an embarrassingly long time she is alleged to have said, "I think I’d better leave now."  Isn't it all pathetic and a terrible harbinger of things to come. We haven't even started negotiating yet and there is already ill feeling.  

The same piece carries a report that yesterday Tory MPs called for Theresa May to be legally bound to trigger Brexit negotiations by the end of March to stop remain campaigners from sabotaging Britain's exit from the EU. Peter Bone, the lunatic MP for Wellingborough, proposed the Bill that would legally force the Government to trigger Article 50 by the end of March next year.  So, when we are on the cliff edge he will be behind us with legislation forcing us all to leap off.  Madness!

SWISS U TURN ON IMMIGARATION

The Swiss are a bit cleverer than we are.  After a referendum in 2014 calling for the end of freedom of movement the government thought they might be able to renegotiate the terms of the bilateral deal with the EU.  The EU played hardball all the way through and faced with the prospect of Switzerland ending its entire relationship with the EU they have now proposed a small change to the law which requires employers to give preference to Swiss nationals (HERE). This only applies in areas with high unemployment so I assume it will change from time to time.

There are parallels here with brexit. I wonder if when faced with a loss of access our politicians will be bright enough to pull back from the brink?  Don't hold your breath.

UK CITIZENSHIP PROBLEMS FOR EU NATIONALS

The pro brexit think tank British Future has released a report (HERE) about the anxiety felt by EU nationals living and working here after the vote. To me this all seems like crocodile tears on the part of Gisela Stuart who has written the forward to the report but who campaigned vigorously to create the problem she now says she is worried about.

The report smacks of Germany in the 1930s with lists of the nationality of the EU citizens living here as if they are an alien species.

The problems are immense as you can see from the report. What a pity she didn't consider this before she decided brexit would be good for us.

The BBC cover the story HERE

WILL IT ALL BE WORTH IT?

The Spectator blog has an item about the OBR forecast and what the implications are for immigration. The OBR say this is likely to be reduced by 80,000 per year and Fraser Nelson says Brexiteers will be delighted bu this (HERE).  But hang on, the OBR also says this will cost the economy £16 billion a year by 2020 and the overall additional borrowing due to brexit is put at nearly £60 billion.

Think about this. 80,000 is about 0.12% of the population, a tiny number but the cost is £60 billion. In other words we are apparently happy to borrow about £750,000 for each immigrant who does NOT come to the UK. This is insanity given the immigration will probably taper off as time goes on in any case but we will be permanently poorer.  Will it be worth it?  I don't think so.

VISA MAY BE NEEDED TO VISIT EUROPE AFTER BREXIT

The Guardian are claiming that the EU are considering introducing a visa requirement similar to the US system where visitors have to apply on-line and pay a fee for the privilege (HERE). The scheme would cover all visitors to the passport-free 26-nation Schengen zone – of which Britain is not a member – from countries that do not need a visa to enter, EU sources confirmed.

CABINET SPLITS ABOUT BREXIT

The papers are full of talk of a split in cabinet between those who want a hard Brexit and others, a majority apparently, led by Phillip Hammond who think that retaining tariff free access to the single market is a red line issue.  A meeting of the cabinet is taking place at Chequers today where the basic approach is being thrashed out.

The Telegraph on Sunday claimed that we will keep access to the single market for financial services and the car industry but we will be able to curb immigration (HERE).  This is exactly the kind of cherry picking that EU leaders have repeatedly warned against with the German Economics minister Sigmar Gabriel only this weekend (HERE) saying, “If we organise Brexit in the wrong way, then we’ll be in deep trouble, so now we need to make sure that we don’t allow Britain to keep the nice things, so to speak, related to Europe while taking no responsibility,” 

I would be amazed if the EU allow us access for financial services while giving us the right to exclude people we don't want.  An opinion piece in The guardian says the EU are going to make sure Brexit hurts (HERE).

The Independent (HERE) is reporting a major US hedge fund is investing in property in Germany, Ireland, France and Holland.  As usual it's the money that talks.

IMMIGRATION NOT SUCH A BIG ISSUE POLL FINDS

A poll carried out for a study of post-Brexit opinions by the British Future thinktank found that only a quarter of leave supporters named immigration as the main reason for their vote, with 54% citing “taking power back from Brussels” as their main voting incentive according to The Guardian (HERE).

If true, this would mean the hard-line proposed by UKIP and others may not have anywhere near the support assumed and perhaps shows a Norway style arrangement would have quite a bit of popular appeal.