BREXIT BILL WILL BE £50 BILLION

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, is reportedly suggesting (HERE) our bill for brexit will be up to £50 billion in money that we have already committed to and for pension and other residual costs from our membership. This is just one of the myriad items to be settled in the withdrawal agreement and before the trade talks even begin.

Update:  Mrs May has rejected the £50 billion figure. He spokesman has said a figure for our liability arising from membership "does not actually exist" (HERE) which I take to mean that even we haven't yet worked out how much leaving the EU will cost.

JAPANESE BANKS WORRIED ABOUT BREXIT

Phillip Hammond has been in Japan trying to reassure banks there that London will get "the best possible access" to the EU (HERE).  I wonder how he explained that Lloyds of London the insurance business that has been based in The City for 328 years is moving part of its operations to the EU in order to protect the 11% of its market that comes from the EU (see HERE).

It might be a case of look what we do not what we say for the Japanese.

Update: It has emerged, according to The Independent, that the japanese warned Mr Hammond that they would begin to leave the UK in 6 months (HERE) unless they get clarity on access to the EU market.

TRADE DEAL MIGHT TAKE 10 YEARS

The British Ambassador to the EU Sir Ivan Rogers, has told the government that a trade deal could take 10 years to negotiate and still fail to be ratified (HERE). Even the Daily Mail is reporting it (HERE).

Some of the brexiteers are taking exception to this with Dominic Raab appearing on tv and radio to rubbish him. The government say they "don't recognise" the figure. They are all deaf to reality.

INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT REPORT

The Institute for Government (IFG) has produced a report about the progress in Whitehall on preparations for  brexit (HERE). It is worrying that the government are trying to carry out planning for brexit with a civil service smaller than it was before WW2 and with a full programme of work that was in place before brexit was even a possibility.

Sky News is saying that the report's authors believe that secrecy is damaging preparations (HERE).

The report also says the Great Repeal Bill is going to be far more complicated than many people first thought.

FINANCE JOBS AT RISK

The Guardian (HERE) are claiming that the House of Lords report (see HERE) on the financial sector has been told up to 200,000 jobs in the city are at risk from brexit.  Banks and other financial institutions have told the committee producing the report that unless there is some clarity they will need to begin planning to relocate some parts of their businesses to mainland Europe or Ireland.

They are concerned that the licenses needed take 18-24 months normally and if there are a lot of organisations applying at the same time this will be delayed and they will be left unable to trade.

HOUSE OF LORDS REPORTS

The House of Lords (HERE) has started to release reports this week on various aspects of brexit. These look extremely authoritative and detailed, the result of a lot of written and oral evidence. You can read the reports as below:

UK - IRISH RELATIONS
OPTIONS FOR TRADE
ACQUIRED RIGHTS
FISHING POLICY
FINANCIAL SERVICES
SECURITY COOPERATION

The HoL committee on brexit says expectations on the part of some in the fishing industry may be too high (HERE).

WTO - ARGENTINA RULES?

The Independent (HERE) has a sobering report about our potential membership of the WTO.  To get a new schedule of tariffs at the WTO would need the unanimous agreement of all 160 existing members including Argentina and Spain (and the EU). 

These and other countries that are not well disposed to the UK would use the opportunity to block our membership to exact a high price. The Falklands and Gibraltar better look out!

INFLATION EDGES UP AGAIN

The BBC are reporting (HERE) that inflation has risen to its highest level since October 2014 and reached 1.2% in November. Historically this is still very low but those of us over sixty will remember how quickly inflation becomes embedded in an economy.  First, prices rise then big industries and the public sector unions press for wage increases which of course results in even higher prices.

Perhaps if we see 2-3% by March 2017 even Nigel Farage might begin to have second thoughts - or is that going too far!

HAMMOND THINKS TRANSITION PERIOD NEEDED

The chancellor, Phillip Hammond has told a select committee that in his opinion a transition period will be needed after the two year period to "cushion" our exit from the EU (HERE).  This won't come as a surprise to most thinking people but to brexiteers it will be anathema.

They are capable of phenomenal self-delusion and think everything can be done more or less overnight without any problem at all. Of course, this is true of most things you are not doing yourself.

ROGER BOOTLE THINKS IT'S THE END OF THE EU

Roger Bootle of Capital Economics thinks it's not too soon to begin planning for the end of the EU (HERE). Most of the article is behind a pay wall but since we know Mr Bootle is a confirmed brexiteer we don't need to read all of it to know he thinks the EU is doomed.

I think the UK will come to an end before the EU does.

RED TAPE AND PLENTY OF IT

Before the vote we were told red tape and regulation was stifling British industry but now a report for Open Britain, a pro-EU think tank, says if we exit the customs Union there will be an "avalanche" of paperwork for businesses that export or import from the EU (HERE).

The report claims we made 70.5 million import declarations and 6.5 million export declarations last year. If we leave the customs union this will add another 60 million declarations.

This will not help the car industry which was already vulnerable see HERE

UK CITIZENSHIP PROBLEMS FOR EU NATIONALS

The pro brexit think tank British Future has released a report (HERE) about the anxiety felt by EU nationals living and working here after the vote. To me this all seems like crocodile tears on the part of Gisela Stuart who has written the forward to the report but who campaigned vigorously to create the problem she now says she is worried about.

The report smacks of Germany in the 1930s with lists of the nationality of the EU citizens living here as if they are an alien species.

The problems are immense as you can see from the report. What a pity she didn't consider this before she decided brexit would be good for us.

The BBC cover the story HERE

BCC WARNS OF SLOW GROWTH AHEAD

The British Chambers of Commerce have issued a warning (HERE) that although growth this year will be above their earlier forecast at 2.1%, next year it will fall to 1.1% and in 2018 to 1.4%. It said, business optimism was continuing to fall, and it expected "a bumpy road ahead in 2017 for British businesses and the economy".

Prosper like never before!

THE LUDDITES

A poll (HERE) by ComRes seems to show we blame globalisation and what the report calls a backward-looking dislike of modern technology for many of our economic ills. And yet Liam Fox thinks we should be signing trade deals with the rest of the world in a huge increase in globalisation.

Trade is our Achilles heel and is surely connected with our appalling productivity which globalisation can only improve (witness the car industry as a great example).

At the same time a piece in The Sunday Times Business section this week says British industry expects to install about 1800 robots in 2016. This compares with more than twice this number for Spain and Italy and 20,000 for Germany. How do we expect to earn our living?

HANNAN ALWAYS THE OPTIMIST

Hannan says we will get a good deal from the EU (HERE) in his usual blindly optimistic way. It occurred to me that whatever deal we do get from the EU Mr Hannan will tell us it is a good one, the absolute bees kness. No matter that we will be significantly poorer, that unemployment will rise and the UK will shatter. No, they will be as nothing compared to the deal Theresa May signs up to.

The New Statesman has a take down of Hannan's piece on Conservative Home (HERE) which is always worth reading.  Nationalists like Hannan are, as Orwell noted, capable of stunning self deception in their cause.

ORWELL AND THE CAPTIVE MARKET OF EMPIRE

There is an interesting note about Nationalism from George Orwell writing just after the second world war (HERE) with some terrific insights into the differences between the patriot and the nationalist. This was sparked off by a piece in The New Statesman by Paul Heslop (HERE) about the age of outrage as Ian calls the present time.

However, in reading it I note how Orwell talked about empire and how it was a captive market for British goods.  I hadn't really thought of it like that but of course this is exactly what it was.  The railways in India were built by British workers in Britain along with a lot of other stuff that we supplied in return for Indian tea.  We made money both ways, selling them our expensive goods and buying their cheap ones - and then selling them on expensively to other countries.

My neighbour has always believed we were never competitive and I think this might be correct. It was the empire that made it appear that we were. After brexit we are going to have to change a couple of centuries of industrial practice in a year or two!

DECADES BEFORE WE KNOW IF BREXIT IS WORKING

James Forsyth in The Spectator (HERE) says it will be "decades" before we know if brexit has been a success or not but still seems to think it is a good thing.

I believe he is being optimistic. Leave voters are not going to give him decades. He likens it to a revolution but we are not like the Russians who accepted jam would always be arriving tomorrow for seventy years. Unless people are better off by 2018 (as David Davis said they would) brexit will be toast.

IRISH COURTS TO BECOME INVOLVED?

There is an attempt to involve the ECJ via the Irish courts (HERE) which may be helpful if it succeeds. The legal bid is being crowdfunded (HERE) and it may make life that much more difficult for the mad brexiteers - let us hope it does.

You can check on the total in the link above. If it gets more serious I'll put a link on the sidebar.