BOJO "SUPPORTS FREE MOVEMENT"

BoJo, in yet another gaffe, has apparently told a number of EU ambassadors that he personally supports the free movement of people (HERE) in Europe. This will come as no surprise to anyone who listened to him before the vote but Mrs May might be a bit miffed since it is of course totally opposite to government policy and even a red line in the forthcoming negotiations.

But then again, who believes a word that comes out of Bojo's mouth?

He is also facing criticism over an official visit to Serbia where he spent time promoting his own book in a Belgade book store and signing copies of it (HERE). 

How long can the fool last?

LEGAL CHALLENGE LATEST

The Supreme Court sits next week to hear the government's appeal against the divisional court's findings October. There is an update on the People's Challenge website (HERE) and it seems god news. The government has "doubled down" and is not really present any new arguments but it remains to be seen what happens.

Meanwhile one legal expert thinks the government might lose 11-0 in the Supreme Court (HERE).

And in a note at the end of the update, lawyers acting for Gina Miller says the government is also likely to lose any legal challenge to the fact they don't intend to trigger Article 127 of the EEA Agreement and believe that leaving the EU automatically means we leave the EEA. If they're wrong and parliament is involved, they may not be able to get a majority to take us out of the single market.

What a mess it all is.

NISSAN AND THE UK CAR INDUSTRY

Last week, the OBR confirmed that The Treasury had declined to say if there were any costs to be considered against the still secret Nissan deal with Mrs May (HERE).  The EU have also confirmed they are yet to receive details of the arrangement. It will be interesting to see if we ever provide any details.

The SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) says tariffs could add £1500 to the average price of each imported car (HERE).

Now Ford are saying today that for them securing free trade between the EU and the UK is a "top priority" (HERE).  The car industry is becoming a key player in brexit and if David Davis does not get a free trade deal or a transitional arrangement after we exit the single market it could end up costing us a fortune in support and lost jobs, sales and exports.

PEOPLE ARE BARGAINING CHIPS

On Monday, a cross-party group of 80 MPs wrote to Donald Tusk, President of the European Council urging him to reach an early agreement about the plight of EU nationals living here and UK nationals living in the EU.

Not surprisingly, he has written back (HERE) saying the uncertainty is not the fault of the EU but the people who voted for brexit. He also says until we leave the EU the rights of all citizens is guaranteed by treaty.  I particularly like this from Mr Tusk:

"Would you not agree that the only source of anxiety and uncertainty is rather the decision on Brexit? And that the only way to dispel the fears and doubts of all the citizens concerned is the quickest possible start of the negotiations based on Art. 50 of the Treaty?"

I am not sure why anyone is surprised since this is the position of Mrs Merkel as reported after a meeting with Theresa May on November 18th (HERE).

Tusk knows that once Article 50 is triggered everything is stacked against us.  Oh well, prosper like never before!

BREXIT POLLYANNAS

Nick Cohen has a good piece in The Spectator (HERE). Ian Dunt has written a book - Brexit:What the hell do we do now, and in it mentions what civil servants tell businessmen waiting to meet David Davis. Apparently, they are warned not to say they are worried about leaving the single market but to appear enthusiastic about the “opportunities” that Brexit brings.

I have met people like this. No matter how ridiculous their plan, it is virtually impossible to point to any potential problems. Anyone with the temerity to suggest an obstacle is pronounced to have negative thoughts and ignored or cast out. It is all reminiscent of a communist mindset where even those who could see disaster looming say nothing or become cheerleaders for certain catastrophe.

None of this bodes well for Brexit. 

It follows reports (HERE) of an aide leaving Davis' department carrying hand written notes that seemed to show the government’s negotiating position. This is apparently to “Have cake and eat it”. I think this just about sums up the government's position after five months of careful consideration!

ANOTHER LEGAL HEADACHE FOR DAVID DAVIS

A new development today. Lawyers for British Influence , a pro EEA think tank, are suggesting that the UK is a member of the EEA in its own right and will need to withdraw from this area separately using article 127 of the EEA agreement (HERE). This is not difficult since it seems only to involve giving notification 12 months in advance, although I'm sure there is more to it than that. Having looked at the agreement it is clear that we (the UK) are listed as one of the contracting parties, separately to the EU, so I can see a legal challenge succeeding on this.

The government’s problem is that they may not have a majority in parliament to withdraw from the EEA. This would cause an enormous row with brexiteers but I am not sure what they would be able to do about it.

Stunningly, on the BBC Today programme this morning, neither Nick Robinson or the person he was interviewing from British Influence seemed to know Switzerland is not in the EEA! They referred to the Swiss referendum on freedom of movement breaching EEA rules without mentioning or realising that the Swiss relationship is governed by a bilateral agreement and NOT the EEA rules. Amazing!

I assume this will play in to the Article 50 court case since if the government wins this they will argue the EEA treaty can be abrogated by royal prerogative without any parliamentary vote at all?

THE PROBLEMS PILE UP

First, the Irish PM Enda Kenny warns that two years is nowhere near long enough to negotiate a trade deal and there will need to be a transitional arrangement (HERE) dashing hopes of a "quickie divorce" beloved of the leave campaign.

Then Charles Grant, director at the think tank Centre for European Reform (HERE), said seeking a transition deal could delay key aims of May’s Brexit negotiations such as immigration controls and freedom from European court of justice rulings.

“May now understands the need for a transitional deal to cover the period between when the UK leaves the EU and when a new free trade agreement comes into effect, several years later,” he said.

“But reaching agreement on a transitional deal will be fiendishly difficult: the EU will insist that the UK accept free movement and European court of justice rulings during the transition, but that may be politically unacceptable for May. Some Brussels officials therefore think the talks may break down without agreement on a transitional deal.”

One senior Tory MP also told the Guardian that a transitional arrangement could prove politically very difficult to sell if it meant continuation of free movement into 2020 going into the next election.

The view about the difficulty of an interim deal was echoed in Germany, where officials have warned that agreeing on a transitional agreement may be as complicated and laborious as agreeing on a final Brexit deal.

THE £32 BILLION BREXIT DIVIDEND IS A MYTH - BBC

The BBC (HERE) have comprehensively debunked the suggestion from Change Britain - a Leave campaign pressure group - that there is a £32 billion "dividend" in the autumn statement.  There won't be any dividend and in 2019-20 instead of having an extra £13 billion we will need to borrow £14.7 billion MORE.

Of course, leavers will only see the headline and think it's true.  We really are in a post-truth world.

BORIS - A FOOL FOR OUR TIMES

A journalist from the EU, Jean Quatremer, has a hard hitting piece in The Guardian about Boris Johnson (HERE) who is described as a buffoon and one that has damaged irreparably what little goodwill we had left in Europe and made the negotiations far more difficult.

BoJo is taken to task for being a political clown and the writer also refers to another article about Johnson (HERE) describing the lies he wrote as a Telegraph correspondent in Brussels. It is almost impossible to overstate what Johnson has done to us, making himself and the nation a laughing stock across Europe.

What an idiot this man is.

WILL IT ALL BE WORTH IT?

The Spectator blog has an item about the OBR forecast and what the implications are for immigration. The OBR say this is likely to be reduced by 80,000 per year and Fraser Nelson says Brexiteers will be delighted bu this (HERE).  But hang on, the OBR also says this will cost the economy £16 billion a year by 2020 and the overall additional borrowing due to brexit is put at nearly £60 billion.

Think about this. 80,000 is about 0.12% of the population, a tiny number but the cost is £60 billion. In other words we are apparently happy to borrow about £750,000 for each immigrant who does NOT come to the UK. This is insanity given the immigration will probably taper off as time goes on in any case but we will be permanently poorer.  Will it be worth it?  I don't think so.

NISSAN - GOVT WILL NOT SAY WHAT THE COST MIGHT BE

Buzzfeed has noticed in the OBR report for the autumn statement (HERE) that government was specifically asked if there were cost implications in the deal with Nissan for the economy that the OBR needed to take account of in preparing their forecasts.

Apparently, rather than saying there were no cost effects the treasury "declined to comment". This is a bit different to the official position. I note also the EU is still waiting for details of the Nissan deal.

LEAVING THE EU - AN ACT OF FAITH?

To many leavers there is almost an evangelical faith in the benefits of life outside the EU. Criticise them or their lack of any kind of plan and expect a vitriolic attack on you and your patriotism. They are not completely unlike some religious fundamentalists who take the mildest criticism as a personal attack on them. 

The fact the economy is resilient is taken to mean there will be no problems at all - ever.  Ask about "prospering like never before" and they will point out we haven't left yet. In other words their vision will take some time while any downsides, if not immediately apparent, are taken as a huge positive and don't you try to claim otherwise.

Martin Kettle has written a thoughtful piece on exactly this topic in The Guardian (HERE) and it makes very interesting if slightly frightening reading. It's subtitled "Brexiteers will trash anyone who gets in their way".

EU STRATEGY BECOMES CLEARER

It is being reported (HERE) that the EU's chief negotiator has said they will negotiate in three tiers. Firstly the withdrawal agreement including the money to be paid to settle ongoing commitments and our share of the budget and assets. Secondly, the transitional agreement that follows our exit. And finally, the future trading relationship between us.

Unfortunately for David Davis, M Barnier says the first two can be conducted simultaneously but the final trade agreement cannot be negotiated until the first two have been agreed. This will delay our signing any other trade deals outside the EU and put a lot of pressure on our negotiators to get a good transitional arrangement.

Ben Wright the BBC Europe correspondent has a piece (HERE) explaining how difficult it might be to reach any amicable agreement. 

The Maltese PM speaking to the BBC (HERE) says the EU27 are united in holding the four freedoms as vital and saying we should not forget the EU parliament has a veto on any agreement.

BREXIT PROGRESS REPORT

After five months we are not really any closer to knowing what Brexit means in spite of Mrs May telling us over and over again. The nation is still completely divided. Remainers are in despair and leavers are angry, fearing betrayal. 

At least, if nothing else, with each passing week it becomes clearer how difficult Brexit is going to be. 

The difficulties are not made easier by the attitude of some of the high profile leavers. They began on June 24th stepping back from many of the promises made in the campaign which all proved worthless. As time went on and the whole economy didn't immediately tank, they criticised those who predicted Brexit would create huge economic problems, even though Article 50 had not and still has not been triggered. Then they attacked the legal challengers to the use of the prerogative and then the high court judges who agreed with the claimants. 

Recently, after the autumn statement, they attacked the OBR for giving too gloomy an assessment of the economic outlook and splits are beginning to appear in the conservative party (HERE)

One wonders what it is about the UK that leavers like – if anything?

RYANAIR

Michael O'Leary, the colourful CEO of Ryanair (HERE) addressed the Airport Operator's Annual Conference and lambasted the government for having no idea how to exit the EU. He told the  conference: “Britain has no negotiation position whatsoever. You file the Article 50 in March, you walk off a cliff in two years’ time".

He particularly single out Johnson, Fox and Davis, saying “If their IQ was one point lower they’d be plants”.

How true!

LEAVERS MOUNT A THIN PROTEST

Reuters reported earlier this week that protesters had gathered outside parliament to urge Mrs May to "get on with it" - the triggering of Article 50 - (HERE) and giving a figure of about 200 people. 

Now, we learn from The Independent (HERE) that organisers had invited 15,000 and of that number, 2000 had said they would attend but in the final analysis, The Independent say fewer than 100 turned up.  What a lot of enthusiasm!

AUTUMN STATEMENT REACTION

Phillip Hammond's Autumn statement brought a mixed reaction.  Prominent leavers have dismissed the OBR forecasts as far too pessimistic while anti-brexit newspapers all focus on the £122Bn of extra borrowing over the next few years, £59Bn of which is said to have been caused directly by brexit (see The Independent's take HERE).

Alastair Darling in The Guardian says Mr Hammon has failed to set out a clear direction (HERE). John Longworth, former head of the CBI says the opposite (HERE). Infacts has take a leaf out of the leave campaign's playbook and used a weekly figure for the extra amount we will need to borrow to fund brexit - the £59Bn is shown as being £226 million a week (HERE).  How will Vote Leave react to that?

POOR LEAVE VOTERS WILL SUFFER

The World Bank's Chief Economist for Europe, Hans Timmer, says brexit is not going to help the poorer section of the community who voted for it overwhelmingly (HERE).

He also warned a lack of ideas on how to assist these voters creates the risk they’ll adopt more extreme views in the future. He said, “The changes that are in the making at the moment will not help these people. They haven’t lost their jobs because of immigration – or otherwise these jobs will still be there – but because of technology and globalisation, which the UK will still continue because they still want to be a part of the global trading system.”

I wonder what this section of the electorate will do when they realise they were conned?