Article 50 has become a possible self destruct button for our economy

The European Council has confirmed they want article 50 triggered before any negotiations can even begin and to make matters worse the trade commissioner says we must exit before we begin new trade negotiations (HERE).  If this is the process insisted on by the EU it presents a huge problem for the government and parliament.


On triggering Article 50 an irreversible and potentially unstoppable two year process begins where we negotiate withdrawal with no trade deal in place and no guarantee that one can be negotiated in a reasonable period afterwards.  We are told that tariff free access to the single market is crucial for the UK economy. The EU is our single biggest export market taking 44% of our exports.  We already run a record trade deficit of £12 billion in the first quarter of 2016. Anything that damages our export trade will have a huge impact.

Article 50 was designed to put maximum power in the hands of the EU.  After two years, if no deal has been negotiated, we are ejected unless all 27 members agree to an extension, and we will rely on WTO rules. Our car exports will carry a 10% tariff and the same for imports.

Once triggered we will have to trust that a good deal will be negotiated but if it isn't, in the worst case we have to accept tariffs, lose access to the mar and damage our economy

On the other hand, if we decline to pull the pin, the press and UKIP and those other leavers who want to go regardless of the consequences will destroy the goverment.  Parliament may come to our rescue by refusing to legalise the result of the referendum but this would poison democracy for years.

We are between a rock and a very hard place, both of Boris' construction.  Ambition is a terrible thing isn't it especially when it all came to nought.