There is more or less an acceptance that Brecht is going to
happen. I think that is probably right but the path to it is anything but
straightforward. Unless I and plenty of others are completely wrong the economy
is going south, at least for a while. If this brings a rise in unemployment and
inflation and a fall in tax revenues many more leavers will probably have
second thoughts. Already it seems about 6% regret voting leave and really very little
has happened to the economy.
I think many will be surprised how costly, difficult, protracted and
divisive it will all be. Weirdly, while Europeans and Americans seem opposed to free
trade agreements (HERE) and favour protectionism we are cheering the opposite. This is
strange and I suspect many voters may not be happy when they begin to
understand how it all works.
So, it would not be a surprise to see opinion polls, in a
year or two when Brexit is fast approaching, showing a consistent majority for remain.
Especially if no deal is in sight. The question then will be what does the
government do? Theresa May is to tell EU leaders there will be no U turn or second referendum (HERE) but she may herself be forced into a U turn.
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