Tuesday, 20 December 2016

COMRES POLL STILL SHOWS MAJORITY FOR LEAVE

ComRes have carried out a poll (HERE) which seems to show there is still a majority to leave the EU and Brexit Central takes a lot of comfort from it. But are the figures all they seem?

The poll says 47% would vote to leave and 45% to remain with 8% not knowing how they would vote. On the surface this looks good for the brexiteers.  In June the vote was 52%-48% a four point advantage - but today there is only a 2% difference.  If we assume the 8% don't knows break evenly either side then today's result would be 51% - 49%.  Given another 6 months there should be balance.

It is hard to understand the result. Apparently 44% think they will be worse off and only 24% think they will be better off while 47% thought our long term prospects outside the EU will be better and only 36% thought we would be worse off . We wait to see what voters think next year.

Incidentally, this is not quite how a YouGov poll saw it earlier (HERE)

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